风的精细化MOS预报方法研究

A STUDY ON SUBTLE MOS FORECASTING METHOD OF WIND

利用MM5模式的站点输出产品，采用多元线性和逐步回归的MOS统计方法，预报宁夏25个测站48h逐时风速、风向，通过对2004年6月～2005年4月近一年的预报效果检验，结果表明：该方法对逐时风速有较强的预报能力，对逐时风向有一定的预报能力,但尚未达到可用程度，还有待于进一步的改进，但都较原MM5模式预报水平有了显著的提高。

Using the products exported by the station of MM5 mode and multi-linear and regressive MOS statistical method, we forecast hourly wind speed and direction of 48h and 25 stations of Ningxia. Based on inspection of the forecast from June of 2004 to April in 2005 nearly for one year, the result shows. MOS method has stronger forecast ability to hourly wind speed and certain forecast ability to hourly wind direction and also improves original MM5 mode. But the method cant＇t be used now. It must be improved and perfected step by step.