中国—东盟自由贸易区成长五阶段预测与分析

A Prediction and Analysis of the Five-Staged Development of the China-ASEAN Free-trade Zone

中国-东盟自由贸易区经济整合大体上须经历五个阶段。在第三个阶段———“要素自由流动”时期,经济整合将从协约性制度推进向机构性制度推进过渡。机构性制度推进使得建立自由贸易区中央协调机构———类似于欧盟“总部”一样的制度需求出现。中国若抓住这样一个机遇,自觉将临边五省经济整合与跨境产业链延伸、城市带形成相结合,将会为自身经济带来类似于两三角和泛渤海经济之外的第四级。

The economic integration of the China-ASEAN Free-trade Zone will roughly go through five stages.During the third stage,the period of 'free circulation of key factors',the economic integration will go through a transition from the contract-oriented system to the organizational system.The development of the latter will result in an institutional demand for the establishment of a central coordinative institution for the free-trade zone,similar to the EU 'Headquarters'.If China can grasp this opportunity and takes the initiative in combining the economic integration of the five border provinces with the extension of the cross-border industry and the development of the urban area,it will bring its economy the fourth dimension similar to the Two Triangle Areas and the Pan-Bohai Economic Zone.