2005年夏季中国东部气候异常分析——中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测检验

The Analysis of Anomalous Climate of Eastern China in Summer of 2005——The Verification of Seasonal Climate Predictions of Institute of Atmospheric Physics

简要比较了中国科学院大气物理研究所对2005年夏季中国降水跨季度预测与实况的异同,并对2005年夏季我国主要雨带及降水偏少区的形成与东亚热带、副热带以及中高纬度大气环流系统的配置进行了分析。对2005年夏季西太平洋副高的异常活动预测不好,这是造成跨季度降水预测有失误之处的主要原因之一。2005年夏季在亚洲对流层中高层,沿着副热带急流轴准静止Rossby波有几次能量传播过程,西太平洋副高的北抬与西伸与副热带急流中Rossby波的活动强度有一定的对应关系,因而产生了亚洲不同地区高影响性的灾害性天气。

The ensemble seasonal climate prediction for the ralnfall of 2005 summer and its verification is compared. The formation of the summer rainfall belts and the precipitation deficit regions in eastern China is analyzed versus the distribution of atmospheric circulation in Asia. The poor prediction of anomalous activities of the subtropical high over the western Pacific （SHWP） in summer is the main reason for the discrepancy. The northward moving of the SHWP is related to propagation of stationary Rossby waves along the Asian jet and the energy propagation processes of stationary Rossby wave lead to the high effect weather in various parts of Asia in summer of 2005,