射程与密集度分组试验的Bayes估计

Bayesian Estimation of Range and Dispersion of Grouping Trial

应用Bayes统计理论,研究了弹道参数的分布函数及统计特性,推导出了弹道参数的先验分布、联合先验分布、联合后验分布、后验边缘分布及后验期望估计公式.结合外弹道学理论,建立了计算射程及密集度分组试验的Bayes估计方法,给出了详细实施步骤并列举实例具体说明,结果表明该方法切实可行.建立的Bayes估计方法对兵器试验鉴定技术具有参考价值.对第一组试验,当含有先验信息时,应用该方法可提高数据处理的精度.

By Bayesian statistic theory, distribution function and statistic characteristics of ballistic parameters were studied, and prior distribution, joint prior distribution, joint posterior distribution, posterior marginal distribution and posterior expected estimation formula of ballistic parameters were deduced. Combined with exterior ballistic theory, Bayesian estimation means was established, which was used to calculate range and dispersion of grouping tests. Detailed approach and example of this means were presented. The results indicate that this means is practical. The Bayesian estimation means has important reference value for ordnance test technology. Precision of data processing can be improved by the means for the first grouping test which has prior information.