将消费看成是人力资本积累的一个来源及其意义——一个动态经济增长模型和基于中国数据的实证检验

Consumption—A Source of Human Capital Accumulation:A Dynamic Growth Model and Empirical in China

本文发展了一个动态经济增长模型,发现消费与收入之间的短期关系非常不同于长期关系。相对于其他消费理论分析框架而言,该模型具有明显包容性,并与Granger-Engle非经典时间序列方法成功实现了“对接”。凯恩斯边际消费倾向递减律、永久性收入假说、生命周期假说、随机游走假说,以及曼昆的λ假说等消费理论或假说,也都可以在这一框架下得到解释,或者说上述理论流派或假说都属于特例。实证分析结论不但支持该理论框架,而且比较恰当地刻画出了我国转型经济中的重大政策和制度变迁的影响。将消费看成是人力资本积累的一个来源,是解释消费与收入之间的短期非稳定关系和长期均衡关系的重要途径。在这个框架下也很容易认识到,从长期视野来看,公平与效率本质上存在一致性。对于寻求解决诸如扩大内需、社会主义新农村建设、集约增长方式选择等诸多中国当前面临的现实问题,以及有关发展政策、公共政策和宏观政策等而言,本文不失为一个具有启发意义的参考基准。

A dynamic growth model is developed and we found that the sort term relationship between consuraption is quite different from their long term relationship. This model is more compatible than other consumption theoretic analysis framework and matches the Granger - Engh non - classical time series approach. Keynesian diminishing marginal propensity to eonsumption, permanent income hypothesis, life cycle hypothesis, random walk hypothesis and Mankiw＇s λ hypothesis can be explained by this model or, in other words, special cases of this model. Empirical studies support this model and describe the impacts of major policies and institutional changes in the Chinese transitional economy. Regarding eonsumption as a source of human capital accumulation is an important way to explain the short term non - stable and long terra eqnilihrium relationship between consumption and income. In this framework, it is easy to realize that, in the long run, fair and efficiency are essentially consistent. For many Chinese current issues, such as increasing domestic demand, the construction of new rural areas, intensified growth pattern selection, and the development and public policies, this article provides an insightful reference benchmark.