中国区域发展差距的趋势分析

Trends and Causes of Regional Development Disparity in China

本文利用CV、HHCI、TEC、MLD分析中国区域发展差距的趋势,包括省际发展差距和东、中、西部地区发展差距;发现1990—2003年期间省际发展差距和东、中、西部地区发展差距呈现不断扩大趋势,而2004年出现下降趋势;利用回归模型、相关系数等方法分析造成区域发展差距的主要原因;发现1990年以来中国区域发展差距的主要原因是由第二产业所造成的。最后,在前面分析的基础上,探讨缩小区域发展差距的几点政策建议。

This paper uses four measurement, coefficient of variance, Herfmdal- Hirschman concentration index, Theil entropy coefficient, and mean logarithm deviation, to analyze regional development disparity in China, that is, the cross- province development disparity and east- middle- west three regional development disparity. We find cross- province development disparity and three region development disparity also appear increasing trend in 1990 - 2003, and appear little downward trend in 2004. This paper uses regression model and correlation coefficient, to analyze the important factor in regional development disparity in China. We find the second industry is an important cause in regional disparity, since 1990. Finally, we suggest some policy implications to narrow the development gaps.