加卸载响应比的自然概率分布

The Natural Probability Distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio

从Ｇｕｔｅｎｂｅｒｇ－Ｒｉｃｈｔｅｒ的分布关系出发，以应用最多的以为响应量的Ｙ３为例，对模拟生成的满足Ｇ－Ｒ关系和均匀随机分布的事件探讨了加卸载响应比的自然概率分布。同时，还与首都因地区的一组实际资料得到的自然概率进行了对比分析。结果表明：在样本量有保证的情况下，反映系统临近失稳程度的加卸载响应比Ｙ３的自然概率分布基本稳定；随机出现加卸载响应比高值的自然概率很低，因此，实际观测到的高响应比值确实可能携带有孕震系统趋于失稳的大量前兆信息。文中同时还讨论了应用加卸载响应比理论时，资料的样本量和事件量级上的变化所带来的影响。

In this paper, the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate the seismic events. The other events that satisfy the random distribution are generated too. With those events, the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio (LURR) which measure quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system is discussed. The study is on the basis of that the stress energy release is choose as the response of nonlinear system Y3. The comparative result from observation catalogue and generating data is also studied. It is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is stable mostly when the sample number is sufficient. The lower the natural probability of LURR is, the more the precursor information it may contain. The influence of Y3 from the sample number and the magnitude range for events is shown.