农网电力负荷中期预测方法探讨

Research on village's Regional Electric Load Medium-term Forecasting Method

电力负荷中期预测是指未来3～5年的负荷预测,是制定电力系统发展规划的基础,也是规划工作的重要组成部分,其目的是为合理地安排电源和电网建设进度提供宏观决策的依据,使电力建设满足国民经济增长和人民生活水平提高的需要。为此,通过对各种预测方法及特点的分析比较,得出用灰色模型预测方法作为农网电力负荷中期预测的方法,且该方法所需原始数据少、误差小、精度高。

The power load mid range estimate will be refers the future 3-5 year the load to forecast that, formulates the electrical power system development plan foundation, also plans the work important constituent, its goal will be for reasonably arranges the power source and the electrical network construction progress provides macroscopic policy-making the basis, will cause the electric power construction to satisfy the national economy national economy growth and the improvement of the standard of living need. Therefore, through to each forecast method and the characteristic analysis comparison, obtains with the pessimistic model forecast the method took the agricultural network power load mid range estimate the method, also this method needs the primary data few, the error small, the precision is high.