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中国牺牲率的估算及其影响因素分析:基于国际比较的实证研究 被引量:8

Estimation of Sacrifice Ratio of China and Analysis of Affecting Factors:the Experimental Analysis Based on International Comparison
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摘要 Disinflation brings the loss of actual output,Sacrifice ratio is the ratio of the loss in output to the fall in trend.The article use the method of specific episodes developed by Ball(1994),to estimate the sacrifice ratio of China,the conclusion show that the average sacrifice ratio are 2.8 percent of a quarterly disinflation episode and 0.3 percent of four yearly disinflation episodes.Based on data of China and G-7,the empirical analysis indicates that quick speed of disinflation、high initial inflation and high openness are major influencing cause of the low sacrifice ratio of China. Disinflation brings the loss of actual output, Sacrifice ratio is the ratio of the loss in output to the fall in trend. The article use the method of specific episodes developed by Ball (1994), to estimate the sacrifice ratio of China, the conclusion show that the average sacrifice ratio are 2.8 percent of a quarterly disinflation episode and 0.3 percent of four yearly disinflation episodes. Based on data of China and G-7, the empirical analysis indicates that quick speed of disinflation, high initial inflation and high openness are major influencing cause of the low sacrifice ratio of China.
作者 舒元 黄新飞
出处 《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第5期64-69,共6页 Statistical Research
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  • 1陈玉宇,谭松涛.稳态通货膨胀下经济增长率的估计[J].经济研究,2005,40(4):23-33. 被引量:30
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  • 4Anderson, PaNe, and Williams Wascher, 199. "Sacrifice Ratios and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in Conditions of Low Inflation" Bank of International Settlements Working Paper No. 82, Novermber.
  • 5Ball, Laurence, 1994, " What determines the Sacrifice Ratio?"in N. G. Mankiw( eds. ) Monetary Policy, University of Chicago, 155 - 193.
  • 6Ball, Laurence, 1999, "Aggregate Demand and Long-Run Unemployment" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, 189 - 251.
  • 7Ball ,Laurence, and N. Greogory Mankiw and David Romer, 1988, "The New Keynesian Economics and the Output- Inflation Trade-Off" Brookings Papers on Economic Activities, 1,1 - 65.
  • 8Gordon, Robert, 1982 "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes" in Robert Hall. Inflation: Cause and Effects. University of Chicago Press.

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