T_(213)等数值预报产品在宁夏寒潮预报中的释用

Explanation and application of numerical products about cold wave forecasting in Ningxia

为了有效地使用数值预报产品,开展有地域特色的释用方法研究,实现灾害性天气的定时、定点、定量预报,以T213等数值预报产品为基础,应用天气学和统计学方法,研发预报宁夏寒潮及逐站要素预报方法,并利用这两种预报方法制作24～168h宁夏全区寒潮及25个站逐日最高、最低、平均气温的预报;针对“2005-03-10”寒潮天气的预报过程,利用所得的预报结果与实况最低、平均气温及降温幅度等进行对比分析.结果表明,T213数值预报产品和寒潮预报方法对寒潮的短中期预报能力较高,逐站要素预报方法对过程降温幅度和各站最低气温的预报有一定的参考价值.

Based on products of numerical forecast, synoptic meteorology and statistical methods were used to research forecast methods, which were utilized to make forecasts of 24 h- 168 h cold wave and the day-by-day highest, lowest and average temperatures of 25 stations in Ningxia, in order to effectively use the numerical forecast products, develop local explanation and application and realize calamity weather forecast. In allusion to the strong cold wave on March 10 th in 2005, observed temperatures and results of numerical forecast were analyzed. The results indicated that, T213 and cold wave forecast methods have good ability for producing short-mid period forecasts and station-by-station forecast methods have some reference value in forecasting decreasing scopes and lowest temperature of stations.