摘要
根据2000年人口普查数据,对湖南省2006-2020年高等教育阶段学龄人口、在校生规模、师资需求量、经费需求量进行预测。结果表明2006-2020年高等教育阶段学龄人口呈现单峰走势,2008年为高峰,达到686·01万人,2017年跌入谷底,为316·53万人。从三种增长模式中,优选出“先快后慢”增长模式,据此模式预测,2010年在校生为124·49万人,2020年在校生为134·22万人。2010年专任教师需求量为9·22万人。2020年专任教师需求量为9·94万人。2010年经费投入需求量为182·3亿元,政府分摊投入量约为121·5亿元。2020年经费投入需求量为188·9亿元,政府分摊投入量约为125·9亿元。预测中获得了四点启示。
Accordlng to the population census data of 2000,we make calculation on number d entry-age students, scale of in-campus students, demands of teachers and funds the higher education in Hunan.The results indicate that,from the 2006-2020, the number of entry-age students d higher education presents single-hump tendency, and the summit is 6,860,100 in 2008,and the bottom is 3,165,300 in 2017.The increasing model ＂first-fast, then slow＂ is the most favorable choice among the 3 increasing models. If we make calculation with this model,the in-campus students are 1,244,900 in 2010, and 1,342,200 in 2020.The demand number d full-time teachers is 92,200 in 2010,and 99,400 in 2020.The funds demand is 18.23 billion yuan （RMB） ,with about 12.15 billion from the govemment in 2010;and 18.89 yuan, with about 12.59 billion from the government in 2020. We can get four points from the calculation.
出处
《现代大学教育》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第3期40-46,共7页
Modern University Education
关键词
湖南
高等教育
学龄人口
预测
Hunan Province
higher education
entry-age students
calculation
