人乳头瘤病毒检测对宫颈低度细胞学异常的寿命效应、成本和成本效益的影响:模拟研究

Lifetime effects,costs,and cost effectiveness of testing for human papillomavirus to manage low grade cytological abnormalities:modelling study

目的：对宫颈刮片结果处于临界或者轻度核异常状态的妇女进行人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）检测以确定是否马上行阴道镜检查。预测该做法对寿命效应、成本及成本效益的影响。设计：模拟研究。研究机构：3个研究中心参与了这项英国国家医疗卫生服务体系（NHS）的引导性研究。人群：25-64岁的宫颈刮片结果处于临界或者轻度核异常状态妇女。干预：采用传统细胞学、液基细胞学以及4种不同年龄截取点和随访次数的策略进行筛查。该策略结合了液基细胞学和HPV检测（辅助的HPV检测）。结果：该模拟研究提示与没有进行HPV检测的传统细胞学方法相比，液基细胞学与HPV检测的联合应用，对于年龄≥35岁宫颈刮片结果处于临界或者轻度核异常状态的妇女，每延长生命年花费为英镑（￡）3735（欧元5528；美元6474），对于年龄处于25-34岁的妇女则延长每生命年需要额外花费￡4233。HPV检测可能减少一生中重复的宫颈刮片检查次数52％-86％，但是会增加阴道镜检查次数64％-138％。结论：对宫颈刮片结果处于临界或者轻度核异常状态的所有妇女均进行HPV检测有可能具有一定的成本效益。然而，预示一生中阴道镜检查的次数增加，需给予慎重考虑。

Objective To predict the incremental lifetime effects, costs, and cost effectiveness of using human papillomavirus testing to triage women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results for immediate colposcopy. Design Modelling study. Setting Three centres participating in NHS pilot studies, United Kingdom. Population Women aged 25-64 with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results. Interventions Screening using conventional cytology, liquid based cytology, and four strategies with different age cut-off points and follow up times that used combined liquid based cytology and human papillomavirus testing （adjunctive human papillomavirus testing）. Results The model predicts that compared with using conventional cytology without testing for human papillomavirus, testing for the virus in conjunction with liquid based cytology for women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results （aged 35 or more） would cost ￡3735 （euros 5528;$6474 ） per life year saved. Extending adjunctive human papillomavirus testing in combination with liquid based cytology to include women aged between 25 and 34 costs an additional ￡4233 per life year saved. Human papillomavirus testing is likely to reduce lifetime repeat smears by 52%-86% but increase lifetime colposcopies by 64% -138%. Conclnsions Testing for human papillomavirus to manage all women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results is likely to be cost effective. The predicted increase in lifetime colposcopies, however, deserves careful consideration.