金融发展中的货币需求稳定性研究——基于1994-2005的协整分析

Study on monetary demand stability in the process of financial development --Based on co - integrated analysis of 1994 -2005

本文以经济改革和金融发展为背景,从经典货币需求理论分析出发,运用协整检验和误差校正模型对我国货币需求的稳定性问题展开研究。分析结果显示,货币需求、国民收入、利率和通货膨胀率之间存在协整关系;我国货币需求主要受收入因素影响而呈现出长期稳定性特征,长期稳定的货币需求对其即期增长的抑制作用不明显,货币需求函数表现出高收入弹性和低利率弹性,而利率的外生性削弱了货币需求对利率的调节作用;基于VEC模型的短期Granger因果检验,支持货币量、利率和货币政策最终目标之间短期均衡关系的存在。

This paper uses co - integration test and vector error correction model to study China＇s monetary demand stability based on the background of economic reform and financial development and on classical monetary demand theory. The analysis results show that co- integration relation exists in monetary demand, income, interest rate and inflation. China＇s moneary demand shows long - term stability character because it is affected by income. Long - term stable monetary demand has unobvious effect on short - term growth. Monetary demand function shows high income elasticity and low interests elasticity. The exogenousness of interests rate weakens the adjustable effect of monetary demand on interests rate. Based on short - term Granger test of VEC Model, short - term equiblibrium relationship of f＇mal objective between support monetary quantity, interest rate and monetary policy exists.