农业发展与经济增长的变结构协整关系研究

Agricultural Development and Economic Growth: Co-integration with Structural Changes

运用变结构协整理论研究我国农业发展与经济增长的长期均衡关系,采用循序检验法确定变结构点,发现在1961年和1980年农业发展与经济增长均衡关系发生突变;对1952～2003年的数据进行变结构协整检验,得到两段变结构形式,表现为参数变结构的水平趋势项飘移型和状态开关型协整关系,最后建立了误差修正模型。

The long-term equilibrium between agricultural development and economic growth in China is discussed by cointegration analysis with structural change in this paper. The changes of the long-term equilibrium between them are detected in 1961 and 1980 by the sequential test. The co-integration analysis subject to structural change is performed in the period of 1952 -2003, two stage-forms of structural change are constructed which indicates parameter changed co-integration with level and trend shifted and state switched. Finally error correction model is built.