人民币汇率制度弹性化改革中的资本项目安排

Arrangement of Capital Account in the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate System toward Elasticity

主要先进国家的经验表明,通过国际投机资本预期这一渠道,资本项目管制能深刻影响浮动汇率运行。对人民币汇率制度弹性化改革中的资本项目安排问题,本文将先进国家经验和中国实际情况结合起来形成的看法是:在缓和汇率波动方面,资本项目管制意义不大,在增强货币政策效果和防范货币危机方面,资本项目管制有重要作用;鉴于货币危机的威胁将充斥人民币汇率制度弹性化改革过程,资本项目开放对货币政策自主性的阻碍不能低估;在汇率制度弹性化改革前,资本项目管制应该进一步得到加强。

Experiences of advanced countries reflect that capital control influences the characteristics of floating exchange rate system through the expectation of speculativecapital. As for the arrangement of capital account in the reform of RMB exchange rate system toward elasticity, the paper, by combining the experiences of advanced counties with the actual conditions in China, points out that capital control, with little positive effects in moderating volatility of exchange rate, plays an important role in strengthening monetary policy and preventing monetary crisis. Capital liberalization brings the significant negative effects to the independence of monetary policy due to monetary crisis in reform of RMB exchange rate system. Capital control should be strengthened before the reform of RMB exchange rate system toward elasticity.