我国区域政策与区域经济空间分布变化的计量分析

A Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship between Regional Policy and Regional Economic Distributions in China

在对近20多年来我国区域发展政策讨论的基础上，以1978-2000年我国区域经济空间分布变化为切入点，通过建立计量经济分析模型，探讨了1978～2000年我国区域发展政策与区域经济空间分布变化之间的关系。模型显示：（1）1978-2000年我国区域发展政策对区域经济集聚起促进作用；（2）第三产业的空间分布变化对区域经济空间分布变化影响最大，其次是第二产业，再次是第一产业，这说明在我国各省市区之间第一产业发展是比较均衡的。而第二和第三产业发展是不均衡的。

Through the discussion of regional development policy and its changes during 1978-2000, applying entropy theory and methodology, this paper analyzes the spatial distributions of economic activities and their change trends in China during the period. The entropy measures of regional and three industrial GDPs showed that the spatial distributions of economic activities in China tended to agglomerate during the period. And then, an econometric analysis model was constructed based on the entropy measures of regional economic distributions and regional development policy indexes. The estimation result of the analysis model has shown the regional development policy which was implemented during the period promoted the agglomerations of regional economic activities in China during 1978-2000, and also the contributions of third, secondary and tertiary industries to the regional agglomeration of economic activities in China during the period ranked first, second and third, respectively.