中国北方沙漠化土地的动力预测及其建议

Dynamic Prediction of Sandy Desertified Land in Northern China and Suggestion

沙漠化以其发展之快和分布之广已构成了区域的主要环境和社会经济问题。中国北方沙漠化面积已从20世纪50年代的13．7万km^2发展到2000年的38．57万km^2。年均发展速度从1560km^2增加到3436km^2。发展速率由1．26％增加到4．76％。影响沙漠化的因子很多，文章选取了人为因子、土壤质地因子、气候因子、地形因子、水文因子5个影响较大的因子，建立有关的动力模式，并对2004-2033年中国北方沙漠化土地进行了数值预测。若按目前的发展速率来预测，2033年中国北方沙漠化面积将达到185．54万km^2，人类活动和气候因子对沙漠化的不利影响强度每增加和减少10％，沙漠化面积将增加15.56万km^2和减少14．44万km^2。

Sandy desertification is a major problem of environment and social economy in the world as its fast speed and vast distribution. The total area of sandy desertified land was 13.7 × 104 km^2 during 1950s, 38.57 × 10^4 km^2 in 2000 in northern China. The annual expanded amount was 1 560 km^2 during the late 1950s and 1975, 2 100km^2 between 1975 and 1987 and 3436km^2 from 1987 to 2000. The developed rate raise from 1.26 96 to 4.76 %. There are many factors which can affect the sandy desertification. We select five factors and create dynamic prediction model, we make the numerical prediction of sandy desertified land from 2004 to 2 033 year. From the result of prediction based on present rate, the total area of sandy desertified land is 185.54 × 10^4 km^2 in 2033, if the bad influence of human activity and climate factor on desertification is increased and decreased by 10%, the total area of desertified land will be increased 15.56 × 10^4 km^2 and decreased 14.44 × 10^4 km^2. If the bad influence is decreased, the total area is decreased with 1.1 × 10^4 km^2.