SARS病例的流行病学生存分析及对卫生检疫的影响

The Epidemiological Survival Analysis of 119 SARS Cases and Its Influence on Quarantine

〔目的〕研究SARS病例生存时间的影响因素,并探讨对口岸卫生检疫的影响。〔方法〕对119例SARS病例进行描述性流行病学调查分析,运用统计学单因素方差分析、卡方检验、Kaplan-Meier和CoxRegession生存分析方法进行研究。〔结果〕119例SARS病例以发热(97.48%)和咳嗽(42.02%)为最常见始发症状,入院平均体温为38.28±0.86℃;平均住院时间是47.75d(95%的可信区间为43.50￣52.00d);男性与女性间平均住院时间的差异无统计学意义(P=0.1918);65岁(含65岁)以上年龄组及65岁以下年龄组死亡率分别为38.50%和4.72%,两者差异有极显著性(P<0.001)。〔结论〕SARS具有人群普遍易感性,以年龄对死亡的影响最为显著。对重点人群应加强口岸卫生检疫,完善口岸体温监测系统;检疫人员应做好个体防护。

Objective To study the influencing factors to SARS cases on their survival span and discuss its influence on quarantine. Methods The analysis of variance,chi-square test,Kaplan-Meier and Cox Regression were applied to analyze 119SARS cases.Results Febris and cough were the moset common initial symptoms.The difference of fatality betwiin the cases whose ages were younger than 65 and others had significant difference（P〈 0.001）.The fatality rates were 4.72% and 38.5% respectively.Conclusion People are generally susceptive to SARS.Age is the most significant factor affecting the death of SARS.Quarantine and monitoring system of body temperature on the ports shouled by strengthened,and individual safe guard should also be attached.