能源与农业价格传递分析

Empirical Investigation of Energy Price Pass-through to Food

运用协整分析、向量自回归、误差修正模型和脉冲响应的方法,详细研究中国从2000年1月至2004年10月新的一轮原油价格上涨之后,月度原油现货价格和生产资料以及生活资料各部分(包括食品、服装、一般日用品、耐用消费品等)尤其是农副食品链之间的价格传导关系。研究结果表明,我国原油价格的传递在上游生产资料产品中显著且滞后期较短,在中游和下游生活资料的传递不畅通且影响的滞后期比较长。

Energy is becoming a bottleneck of the economic growth in China. By using co-integration,vector auto regression,error correction model and impulse-response,we have done the work over the pass-through effect of oil energy price increasing in our country between Jan.2000 and Oct.2004. The result implied that the price pass-through effect in upriver manufacture products was evident and the lag-off period was shorter while in middle and downriver life products was not expedite and the lag-off period was longer. This result should be an indication to the policy of consumer price