贸易引力模型:来自中国的实证与启示

Trade Gravity Mode: Demonstration from China and Inspiration

作者在采用并修正贸易引力模型的基础上,验证了决定中国双边贸易的主要因素是贸易伙伴的经济规模(GDP总量)、人口、空间距离和贸易政策等,并通过Beta系数检验证明区域经济合作组织是影响中国对外贸易最重要的因素;通过贸易潜力分析,说明中国目前应当充分重视国内市场,坚持扩大内需的战略,同时积极调整贸易结构,改善贸易增长方式。

On the basis of adopting and revising trade gravity model, the author validates that the primary deciding factors of China＇s bilateral trade are the economic scale of trade partners, population, space distance, trade policy and so on. Moreover, Beta coefficient test indicates that regional economic cooperation organization is the most important factor which influences China＇s international trade. It is shown from trade potential analysis that Chinese government should pay more attention to the domestic market, stick to the strategy of expanding interior demand and at the same time regulate trade structure and improve the trade growth means.