摘要
有效市场理论是市场价格波动的基础理论,然而,其假设及分类的理想化,很难很好解释复杂的市场现象,为此,本文提出了趋于有效的假说,使其与现实复杂的实际市场吻合。在此基础上,借鉴物理学的弹性系统模型,对影响价格因素细分,进而构建价格波动的弹性系统模型,来更好地解释价格波动的特性和主要动力源泉,并为市场分析提供有效的思路。
The efficient markets hypothesis （ EMH ） is the foundation of marketable value. However, with idealized hypothesis and classification it＇s hard to explain complex market phenomena. Therefore the author puts forward the hypothesis of trend toward efficiency and makes fit the actual complex market. On the basis of this the author uses it the elastic system mode to subdivide the factors that influence prices and then construct the elastic system mode for price fluctuation to explain the features and main driving source of price fluctuation and provide effective ideas for market analysis.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第4期151-154,共4页
Economic Survey
关键词
期货
趋于有效
价格波动
弹性系统
模型
futures
trend toward efficiency
price fluctuation
elastic system
model
