溃变理论在西北地区冰雹天气预报中的应用

Application of Blown-up Theory to Hail Weather Forecast in Northwest China

根据“溃变理论”和V—3θ图预报工具,制作了西北地区36个探空站点的V—3θ图。通过对2004年8月发生在青海西部、甘肃东南部和宁夏南部的一次大范围冰雹天气过程V—3θ图综合分析,结果表明:在干旱半干旱地区,基于溃变理论的预报工具对冰雹天气具有一定的预报能力。

Based on the blown- up theory and the V- 3θ structural prediction method, V- 3θ figures of 36 aerological stations in Northwest China were made. The hail weather course which occurred in August, 2004 in west Qinghai, southeast Gansu and south Ningxia was analyzed by the V - 3θ figures. Results show that the prediction tools based on the blown - up theory is capable of forecasting hail weather to some extent in the semiarid and arid region.