银川市空气质量动力预测系统及预测结果分析

Prediction Result Analysis of Air Quality Dynamic Prediction System in Yinchuan City

在介绍银川市空气质量动力预测模型的基础上,重点对该模型的预测结果及误差进行分析。结果表明:该系统能较好地对24 h污染气象条件进行预测,污染气象条件的预测结果与监测结果比较吻合,预报准确率PM10为61%、SO2为92%;春季各月PM10预测值的平均绝对误差较大,其它3个季节相对较小,SO2的情况与PM10正好相反;考虑风沙条件对模式预测准确性的影响,可根据不同时间、不同季节,逐步调整模式中的扬沙系数,能有效地提高该模式对银川市多风沙季节以PM10为首要污染物的空气质量预测准确率,以适应银川市特殊的气候及环境条件。

The air quality dynamic prediction system in Yinchuan city is given out simply, and the prediction result and error about the system are analyzed in detail. Results show that the system can forecast pollution meteorological condition in 24 hours , and the prediction result corresponds to monitoring result well, the prediction accuracy for PM10 and SO2 is 61% and 92%, respectively; the average absolute error of predicted value for PM10 is relatively less in winter, summer and autumn, but it is contrary to that of SO2 ; Considering the influence of blow sand condition on predicting accuracy of the system, the blowing sand coefficient in the model can be adjusted progressively according to different time and seasons, thus it can improve prediction accuracy of the model for air quality in windy and dusty season effectively, so as to be adapted to the special climate and environmental condition in Yinchuan city.