时间序列模型描述个体经济发展趋势的局限性及改进方法

Limitations and Improving Methods of Individual Economic Developing Trend Represented by Time Series Models

趋势是经济时间序列最主要的特征之一。利用时间序列模型不仅能够分析经济序列的趋势,同时还可以进行预测。但利用时间序列模型对总体的经济趋势的估计不能用来描述个体的经济趋势。因此,研究描述个体经济趋势的改进方法是必要的。

Trend is one of the most important characters of economic time series, Economic trend may be analyzed and forecasted, using by time series models, But an estimator of a population economic trend from time series models, can not well represent individual economic trend, Therefore, it is necessery to study the improving methods of individual economic trend.