中国未来10年通胀周期预测及其验证

Prediction and verification of China's Inflation Period Over the Next Decade

采用增广Pisarenko方法对当代中国通货膨胀周期进行分析验证,可得出通货膨胀周期函数。运用这一周期函数对中国通货膨胀周期进行10年预测,可得出2009年左右、2013年左右中国可能出现较高的通货膨胀预测结果。因此,必须对可能出现的较高的通货膨胀保持足够的警惕,做好必要准备。

The author conducts the analysis and confirmation of the contemporary Chinese inflation cycle by adopting Generalized Pisarenko algorithm. Moreover, the author makes a ten- year prediction of inflation of China with the inflation period function. The prediction indicates that there will be relatively high inflation in the year around 2009 and 2013, that is, the inflation level is on the rise. This can deserve extensive concern from the government, so that it can be alert to, and take necessary precaution against the inflation.