中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力——基于传统IS-LM模型的实证分析

Fiscal Policies' Capability in Smoothing Economic Fluctuation since China's Reform and Opening-up——An Empirical Analysis Based on the IS-LM Model

文章通过借助传统IS-LM模型和比较静态分析方法对中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力进行了实证分析,得出:(1)财政政策对经济波动的整体平滑能力较低,平均只有6.35%,财政政策的平滑能力在经济波动的不同状态之间存在明显差异;(2)财政政策工具之间的平滑能力存在较大差异,其中财政购买性支出能平滑掉经济初始冲击的11.48%,而财政转移性支出和收入政策整体上反而使经济波动上升近3%;(3)内生性检验表明,中国只有相机性支出政策与经济波动之间存在显著的双向因果关系,不仅如此,相机性支出政策的内外时滞都较短。文章结论的政策含义是,提高中国财政政策稳定效果的关键在于提高政策工具的有效性与相互之间的协同效应,不仅如此,对经济高涨时期政府财政行为进行有效约束也至关重要。

With the traditional IS-LM model and the comparative static analysis,this paper investigates fiscal policies＇ capability in smoothing economic fluctuation since China＇s reform and opening-up. It gets conclusions as follows ： （1） fiscal policies＇ capability in smoothing economic fluctuation is comparatively low, which is averagely 6. 35 percent, and the performances vary greatly during different periods of economic fluctuation; （2） different policy tools are greatly different from each other in terms of such capability, namely,fiscal expenditure can smooth off 11.48 percent of economic initial shock,while fiscal transfer and income policy enhance economic fluctuation instead by nearly 3 percent; （3） endogenous test indicates that the two-way causality relationship only exits between discretionary expenditure policies and economic fluctuation and the internal and external time lag of discretionary expenditure policies are relatively short. The conclusions above indicate that the key to improving the stable effect of China＇s fiscal policies lies in improving the validity of policy tools and the cooperative effect among the tools;moreover, it is also necessary to restrain government＇s fiscal behaviors during the overheated economy.