基于财务与非财务指标的亏损公司财务预警研究——以公司ST为例

Corporate Financial Forecast Warning Based on the Financial and Non-financial Measures——Taking ST Companies for Example

以往公司财务预警研究主要基于财务指标预测公司财务状况。文章强调,对于转轨时期的中国企业财务预警研究,基于财务指标的分析,虽然能够给出财务困境发生的概率,但却难以给出财务困境的深层次解释,特别地,对于财务困境早期预警具有较大局限性。鉴于此,文章在财务指标分析的基础上,引入公司治理、投资者保护等因素,综合分析上市公司亏损困境的原因,并比较分析了基于财务、非财务指标及综合指标的预测模型的有效性,进而提出相关政策建议。

Present literatures on corporate financial forecast warning are mainly based on financial measures model. This paper, however,argues that although forecasting models based on financial measures may be effective in forecasting the probability of corporate financial distress, it can not be used to provide deep explanations for why getting into financial distress during China＇s economic transition period. Especially, it can hardly be applied to forecast the early financial distress. Considering of this and based on the analysis of financial measures, this paper synthetically analyzes the deep reasons for listed companies＇ financial losses with corporate governance and investor protection taken into account. This paper also examines the validity of forecasting models that contain financial, non-financial and comprehensive measures, and then provides relevant policy suggestions for listed firms.