我国税收增长与GDP增长的非一致性解释及协调思路

Explanation and Harmonization of the Inconsistency between the Increases of China's Tax Revenue and GDP

税收增长对经济发展有着积极作用,但是当这种增长态势发展成为一种常态时,就应对两者间的关系进行协调。以1981年￣2003年间的统计数据为依据,对我国税收和GDP之间的关系进行关联性分析,结果发现两者具有较强的正相关性。其原因在于局部经济过热、税收计划管理方法、政府经济职能的扩张以及对财政支出效益的忽视等,协调的思路在于调整税改理念、提高财政支出效益、综合考虑税收成本。

The rise in tax revenue has a positive effect on the development of an economy, but when such a rise develops and comes into a constant state, it becomes necessary to consider how to keep tax revenue and economic development in line. This paper offers an analysis on the relation between tax revenue and GDP with the statistic data from 1981 to 2003, the result of which is that these two variables are strongly related in a positive way. Accordingly, it comes to the conclusion that the fact that the rise of tax revenue is inconsistent with the development of the economy is due to the overheat of parts of economy, the method of planned regulation of tax raise, the expansion of governmental functions in economy and the neglect of the efficiency of fiscal expense. As a result, in respect of how to harmonize tax revenue and economic development, what really needs to be done is to adjust tax system reform, boost the efficiency of fiscal expense and take a comprehensive account of tax cost.