G(1,1)灰色模型在某大坝水平位移预测中的应用

Application of Grey Model G(1,1) in Prediction of Horizontal Displacement of Dam

大坝的水平位移受到了外部环境各种因素的影响,而这种影响又难于用确定的关系式表达,由于试验数据中有些信息是已知的(如水平位移是可以通过测量得到的),而有些信息是未知的(如外部环境对它的影响作用),因此大坝水平位移的试验数据系统是一个典型的灰色系统,本文对大坝的水平位移建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对大坝水平位移的试验数据进行处理和预测。所使用的数据量少,其拟合结果、预测结果与实测结果相比具有很高的精度。因此,灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在工程领域的数据处理中具有广阔的应用前景。

The horizontal displacement of dam is difficult to express clearly because of external factors. Some experimental data can be known（such as horizontal displacement）, and others is unknown（such as the effects of external factors）, so the experimental data system is a typical grey system. In this paper, the GM（1,1） is established to forecast the horizontal displacement of dam. Compared with the measured data, the results predicted with this method are very effective and accurate. So this method has wide application prospects in data process in various engineering fields.