论我国货币供应量中介目标的有效性

Research on Intermediary Target Efficiency of Monetary Supply in China

以普勒基本分析理论为基础,对我国经济的基础冲击进行了两阶段实证分析,结果表明目前的冲击仍然主要来自于商品市场；分析了货币供应量与真实GDP之间存在着长期均衡关系,认为货币供应量作为中介目标仍然具有理论上的合理性,但是合理性并不一定意味着效率性,进而通过Granger因果检验对货币供应量的低效性进行了证明。在实证分析的基础上对上述问题的产生原因进行了分析。

Based on the Poole＇s basic analysis theory, this paper tries to analyze the rationality and efficiency of money supply in China. At present, the basic impulsions in China mainly come from commodity market. Meanwhile, a long-run equilibrium relationship between the money supply and real GDP exists. However, rationality does not lead to efficiency; this paper will prove the low efficiency of money supply target through granger causality test. Furthermore it will discuss the main cause of the empirical study result.