GM(1,1)模型在长江水质预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) model in prediction of the quality of the Yangtse river

介绍了GM(1,1)的原息模型、新息模型和等维新息模型及残差修正模型的建模方法,分别建立了长江水质预测的等维新息模型和残差修正模型。通过对模型的预测结果进行分析,并对比原数据的趋势,发现两模型在数据突变点附近有明显差别,其数据说明残差修正模型在细节方面更接近实际,其结果体现了数据的内在规律。

The modelling methods of old information model, new information model, equal dimension new information model and modified model of residual based on GM（1,1）are introduced; the equal dimension new information model and the modified model of residual are set up separately. According to the result and the trend of the data,we think that the result by the modified model of residual could represent the inherence of the data. The two models are obviously different at the aberrant point, but the data show the modified model of residual is more actual in details.