上海市信息产业发展与用电需求的回归分析

Regression Analysis on Information Industry Development vs Power Supply Demand in Shanghai Municipality

随着近些年上海市信息化的迅猛发展,信息产业对社会经济各领域产生了广泛而深远的影响,进而直接和间接地影响了各行各业对于电力的需求。通过对上海市1995～2004年信息产业增加值与总用电量的对数线性回归分析和进一步的相关性检验,得到了可用于电力需求预测的线性对数模型。最后,运用此模型对上海市“十一五”期间的用电需求作出了预测。

With the quick development of informationization in Shanghai municipality, information industry has brought profound and lasting influence on various social and economic fields, and hence has affected directly or indirectly the power demand of different industries and sectors. Based on linear logarithm regression analysis on the value added by the information industry and the total electricity consumption during the period of 1995 to 2004 in Shanghai municipality, and the follow-up relevance examination, a linear logarithm mathematic model for power demand forecast is got. Power demand forecast for Shanghai municipality during the ＂11^th fire-year＂ period is therefore carried out using this model.