中国地方政府最优规模的理论与实证研究

On Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Optimum Scale of Local Government in China

本文通过研究财政支出和政府消费在生产过程中的作用，估计了中国地方政府的最优规模。采用Barro和Karras的分析方法，利用我国28个省市区1978～2004年的面板数据检验了“Barro规则”。研究发现，我国地方政府的财政支出和政府消费是显著生产性的，但财政支出和政府消费支出均提供过度，最优政府规模为10%（±1%），比实际政府规模要小，且财政支出及政府消费的边际产出与相应的政府规模显著负相关。

This paper analyzes the effect of financial payout and government expenditure in the course of production and estimates the optimum scale of local government in China. Introducing the Barro's and Karras's research approaches, the paper tests the Barro's Rule by the panel data of 28 provinces of China during 1978～2004. The result shows that China's local government financial payout and government expenditure are markedly procreative, but the financial payout and government expenditure are provided exceedingly. The optimum government scale is 10%(±1%), which is less than practical government scale. The marginal output of financial payout and government expenditure has negative correlation with corresponding government scale.