基于“前景理论”的先验信息下出行者路径选择模型

A Prospect Theory-Based Route Choice Model of Traveler with Prior Information

对出行者路径选择行为的分析具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。首先回顾了传统的路径选择模型的理论基础———“期望效用理论”的不足,并对“前景理论”进行了简介;接着在“前景理论”的框架下分析了先验信息条件下出行者的学习更新过程,定义了出行者决策的参照点;最后给出了先验信息条件下出行者路径选择的理论模型.

It＇s very important to model traveler＇s route choice behaviour when analyzing the transportation system. This paper reviews the disadvantages of Expected Utility Theory. which is the basis of most existing route choice models, and then introduces the ＂Prospect theory＂ . Based on the framework of ＂Prospect theory＂ , the paper analyzes the traveler＇ s learning process and route choice behavior on his own experience, and defines ＂ Reference point＂ of traveler＇s decision. Finally, it puts forward the theorical model of traveler＇s route choice only based his own experience.