主成分分析法在水资源承载力影响因子评价中的应用

Application the Principal Components Method in Evaluating the Influence Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity

水资源承载力是区域水资源安全的基本度量,对于区域认识和建设水资源安全保障体系有重要的意义。将主成分分析方法引入到水资源承载力研究中,并以浙江省为例,在现有资料的基础上,利用主成分分析的方法,定量分析影响水资源承载力变化的最主要的驱动因子,结果表明,浙江省水资源承载力的影响因子可以归为3类:社会经济因素、水资源开发利用因素、水环境破坏因素,从单个因子来看,GDP和固定资产值对水资源承载力的影响尤为显著,其因子载荷量均为0.992,可见经济的快速发展对水资源承载力造成了巨大的压力。

Water resources carrying capacity is a basic measurement of water resources security, which plays a very important role in recognizing and building water resources security system. This paper applies Principal Components Method to evaluation of water resources caring capacity, and takes Zbejiang Province as an example, discussing the quantitative relationship between the water resources carrying capacity and its influence factors. The results showed that the main influence factors could be classified into three types：dynamlc changes of society and economy,improvement of the water resource exploring and serious pollution of water resource.