摘要
在短视的理性预期均衡(myopic REE)理论框架下,引入“负红利”的概念,证明土地价格在实际贴现率下是一个贴现鞅.利用1986年-1990年日本8个督道府剔除通货膨胀率之后的地价数据建立了一个地产泡沫预警模型,并对中国16个重点城市2003年和2004年地产市场的泡沫情况进行了实证分析.实证结果表明:2004年杭州、上海和沈阳存在着严重的地产泡沫;成都和重庆等地的地产市场有过热的迹象.地产泡沫预警模型对于防范地产泡沫的发生,促进中国房地产市场的健康发展具有重要意义.
Based on the theory of myopic REE, this paper introduces “negative dividend”into analyxing the land bubble. It is proved that the land price is a discount martingale under the real discount rote. The model is founded with the real land price data, which has been eliminated the inflation rote from the market land price of 8 important Japanese prefectures, whose real estate markets were overheating during 1986-1990. And then the model is used to analyze the land bubble of 16 important Chinese cities in the year 2003 and 2004. The practical analysis shows that in 2004,there was big land bubble in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang, and the land markets of Chongqing and Chengdu were hotter than usual too. This model is important to China real estate market＇s healthy development.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期1-7,40,共8页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
中国科学院虚拟经济与金融研究中心和北京市科委博士生毕业论文资助基金(ZZ0518)
关键词
地产泡沫预警模型
投机
鞅
负红利
短视理性预期均衡
land bubble early-warning model
speculation
martingale
negative dividend
expectation equilibrium
