基于可信性理论的水火电机组检修计划

Hydro-thermal Generator Maintenance Scheduling Based on Credibility Theory

水电机组同时存在着水电电量模糊性和机组强迫停运的随机性这两类不同的不确定性,因此水火电机组检修计划本质上是一个具有随机模糊双重不确定性的混合整数优化问题。但是,因概率论与模糊论在基础数学领域内是相互独立的理论体系,传统的机组检修计划只能对随机性或模糊性这两类不确定性中的一类进行建模,然后采用随机规划或模规划来求解。可信性理论是2004年基础数学领域完成的数学分支,它给出了基于测度论的模糊论公理化体系,并提糊供了随机性与模糊性综合评估的严格数学基础。文中基于可信性理论,建立了水、火电机组检修计划的混合整数随机模糊双重不确定性优化模型(原始模型),并在这一个模型中同时考虑随机性与模糊性2种不确定性。利用Benders分解法,将原始模型分解为多目标整数规划(主问题)和随机模糊规划(运行子问题)2大问题进行分散协调,利用改进Balas算法求解主问题,综合利用可信性理论与半不变量法求解运行子问题。对吉林电力系统中的95台机组安排了全年的检修计划,结果表明:该算法和软件在实际系统中应用是可行、有效的。

The traditional model of hydro-thermal generator maintenance scheduling is occasionally unfeasible because the fuzziness and randomness are computed separately. Due to the credibility theory accomplished in 2004, randomness and fuzziness could be evaluated together. A comprehensive model of hydro-thermal generator maintenance scheduling, which consider both randomness of force outage rate and fuzziness of hydro energy, is well established based on credibility theory in this paper. Based on Benders decomposition method, this problem is decomposed to two sub-problems： a deterministic multi-objective integer programming master problem and a random fuzzy operation slave problem. Then, an improved Balas implicit enumeration method is developed to solve the master problem. The credibility theory and Cumulants method are integrated to handle the slave problem. This method is applied to make maintenance scheduling for all the 95 generators of Jilin power system. And the numeric results prove this algorithm is effective and practical.