江苏服务业结构效益与竞争力分析——兼评偏离份额分析法的应用

ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL BENEFIT AND COMPETITIVENESS OF JIANGSU′S SERVICE INDUSTRY——A REVIEW OF APPLICATION OF SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS

在我国加入世界贸易组织和经济市场化改革不断深入的新形势下，重视发展服务业不仅对促进江苏省经济增长和解决就业问题具有重要意义，而且也是提高江苏省制造业竞争力的有效途径。运用改进后的偏离份额分析方法，以长江三角洲地区的上海市和浙江省为参照系，实证分析了1990-2002年江苏服务业的结构效益和竞争力状况。研究结果表明，江苏省服务业在增长速度和产业结构效益上略优于上海和浙江，但竞争力显著低于上海和浙江，这将是今后制约江苏服务业持续快速健康发展的重要因素。为进一步提高江苏省服务业产业结构效益和竞争力，加快服务业发展，今后应努力解决服务业的发展定位、服务业内部行业结构的调整和优化、服务业人才队伍建设和竞争力提高以及服务业的深化改革等4个方面的问题。

Under the condition of China＇s entry into the World Trade Organization and the deepening of market-oriented economic reform, the development of service industry is very important to the further growth of Jiangsu＇s national economy and the solution of employment, and it is also an effective way to improve the competitiveness of Jiangsu＇s manufacturing which has been an key sector of economic development. Through the shift share analysis method, this paper analyzed the structural benefit and competitiveness of Jiangsu＇s Service industry from 1990 to 2002 by comparing with Shanghai City and Zhejiang Province both in the Changjiang River Delta Region. Before the application of shift share analysis method, this paper reviewed some published literature and pointed out that there are shortcomings in some of these studies, mainly due to the selection of base period and frame of reference. The authors then have improved the application of shift share analysis method to make the results more reliable. The research results showed that the growth rate and structural benefit of Jiangsu＇s service industry are superior to Shanghai and Zhejiang, but the competitiveness is inferior to Shanghai＇s service industry and Zhejiang＇s service industry, and the latter will restrict the sustainable and rapid development of Jiangsu＇s service industry. For further enhancement of structural benefit and competitiveness and faster development of Jiangsu＇s service industry, the government from now on should start to solve problems in relation to the localization of Jiangsu＇s service industry development, the internal structure and the optimization of Jiangsu＇s service industry, the construction of talented people and the enhancement of competitiveness of Jiangsu＇s service industry as well as service industry deepened reforming. If the above problems were resolved in the future, the competitiveness of Jiangsu＇s service industry should become much better improved, and its service industry will undergo a much faster development.