当前人民币汇率制度选择的理论思考

Theoretical Thoughts of the Selection of Our Exchange Rate System at Present

任何汇率制度都只是实现经济目标的手段而不是目的,我们在各个时期选择的汇率制度应该是对我国经济发展最有利的制度。在现有的国际货币体系下,如果资本项目尚未开放,则理性的选择应该是固定汇率制度;如果资本项目已完全开放,则实行浮动汇率制是有效而保险的。对于中国这样一个资本账户部分开放的国家,现阶段重新回到真正意义上的有管理的浮动汇率制是必要的,也是可行的。

Actually, an exchange rate system is only one of the measures to realize the national economic aims, but not the purpose. Therefore, an exchange rate system selected by our country must be in our most favor to the national economy in every period. Generally, under the present international monetary system, a reasonable country should select the fixed rate system when its capital account is fully restricted, and the floated rate system when fully opened. As China is a partly opened country in its capital account, therefore, to come back to the real managed floated rate system from the present fixed peg arrangement is necessary and feasible for us.