现阶段我国合理赤字率的分析——基于债务风险的分析

An Analysis on the Rational Deficit Ratio Based on the Government's Debt Risk

从债务风险角度判断中国合理的财政赤字率的关键是看经济增长速度是否大于真实利率。根据索罗-斯旺模型，中国未来可以实现经济的较快增长，同时利率保持较低水平。中国1％-2％的基本赤字率是合理的。

Based on the goverment＇s debt risk, the rational deficit ratio depends on whether the economic growth rate exceeds the real interest. From the Solow -Swan Model, we know that the growth rate in our country can exceed the real interest in the future. The gross demand is still insufficient at present, so the deficit and national debt policy is durative and the basic deficit ratio from one percent to two percent is reasonable.