雷州半岛年降水量序列分析及预测模型

Analysis of Annual Precipitation Time Series for Leizhou Peninsula and the Concerned Predicting Model

采用了雷州半岛徐闻气象站年降水量(1957～2002年)的时间序列资料,运用时间序列分析建模方法,对序列提取趋势项和周期项,并用自回归-滑动平均混合模型拟合剩余序列,然后再对年降水量序列进行预测。分析结果证明,建立的时间序列预测模型,具有较高的预报精度,其预测的结果可以用作雷州半岛旱情预报和防治的参考依据。

This paper introduces a modeling method for analyzing and predicting non-stationary time series. The annual rainfall data are used as one of the most important observation factors that can reflect the dynamic change of drought. Thus, this paper gets the annual precipitation data of the Leizhou Peninsula from 1957 to 1996, and adopts a method of time series analyzing, which is building an auto-regression moving-average （ARMA） model after the trend terms and periodic terms are extracted and examined. And then the posterior results are forecasted by the model. The result shows that the annual precipitation has indistinctive trend and obvious periodical change. The model of predicting precipitation on Leizhou Peninsula has high degree of accuracy, the data predicted can be used in the dynamic drought analysis of Leizhou Peninsula.