一种可选择的新方法:加权人均GDP

Alternative Methodology: Weighted GDP per capita

本文提出一种可选择的计量方法,将“物”和“人”的因素定向加权到人均GDP分布的核密度估计中。同时在对城市的实证中,将我国城市划分为5个不同的人均GDP分布区域分别进行估计,发现至1989年以来,贫穷区域在减少,但出现反弹,摆脱贫穷区域没有明显增长趋势,走向富裕区域年平均增长速度0·19%,比较富裕区域年平均增长6%,富裕区域年平均增长速度7·6%。按现有的速度增长估计,2010年富裕区域增加到10%,而走向富裕区域将增加到53·8%,庞大的走向富裕阶层形成社会的稳定区域,尽管城市区域基尼系数已达0·45进入警戒线。

This paper provides alternative method which puts the factors of substance and people weight into the measurement of city distribution of GDP per capita. As application, by dividing the GDP per capita distribution regions into 5 parts since 1989, this paper demonstrates the following conclusions, despite of a little rebound, the poor territory is decreasing; the territory of shaking off poverty doesn＇t show a distinct increasing trend; while the territory of making for wealthy shows an average annual growth rate of 0. 19 percent; the comparative wealthy territory keeps an annual growth rate of 6 percent; the wealthy territory reaches an average annual growth rate of 7.6 percent. Although the Gini coefficient has reached the alarming line of 0.45, the growth speed listed above show the wealthy territory will increase to 10 percent and the territory of making for wealthy will take up to 53.8 percent in the year 2010 on the whole, with the fact that the majority territory of making for wealthy will make up the steady territory of the whole society.