人口红利有多大

Is the population bonus large

本文用一个含中青年人对幼年人抚养和对老年人赡养的世代交叠模型分析人口变动对储蓄率的影响,得到了一些新的结论。其中较重要的是:①快速的生育率下降对储蓄率没有大的正影响(储蓄率只在人口转变时期小幅度上升);②幼年-中青年人口比率变动对储蓄率的影响力比老年-中青年人口比率变动对储蓄率的影响力小得多;③快速的生育率下降虽然引起经济增长率下降,但它同时引起人均消费永久性提高。

this paper studies the impact of population transition on savings rate by using a overlap generational model in which young and middle aged people perform bring-up obligations to infant and supporting obligations to the elderly, and obtains several new conclusions. Of them the important ones are： 1） a sharp decline of birth rate have no significant impact on savings rate （this means that savings rate only increase a little during transition period of population）; 2） the impact of the changes in population ratio of infant to young and middle aged on savings ratio is much smaller than that of the changes in population ratio of the elderly to the young and middle aged; 3） a sharp decline in birth rate not only leads to decline in economic growth, but also permanent increase in average per capita consumption.