构建多维框架景气指数系统的初步尝试

the Preliminary Attempt of Constructingthe Multi-dimensional Framework for Composite Index System

本文利用多维数据结构框架,通过建立物价、房地产业、出口、汽车行业等不同领域和宏观经济总量的先行、一致和滞后景气指数系统,监测和预测宏观经济运行中各种不同类型的波动,进而从结构上来把握我国宏观经济波动的总体状况和未来发展趋势,清楚地发现宏观经济各层面发生的变化,洞悉经济结构发生的转变,引导投资者理性投资,并有利于政府及时采取调控政策,以促进经济平稳、快速发展。本文还利用所建立的多维框架景气指数系统对2006年经济形势进行了分析与预测。

The paper established leading, coincident and lagging composite indices in the fields of the price level, real estate, export, motor vehicles and macro - economic aggregation using multi - dimensional data structure, and monitored and forecasted different types of macro - economic fluctuation. Furtherly we analyzed the overall situation and the future development tendency of macro - economic fluctuation in the view of the structure, and clearly discovered the changes in various levels of macro - economy and the changes in the economic structure. These composite indices can guide the investors to invest rationally, and the government to adopt the regulative policy promptly, which could promote the economy to grow steadily and fast.