中国“未观测货币资金”:测估理论与方法

Estimating Theory and Approach for the Non-observed Money Fund in China

民间借贷、企业非正规融资等未观测金融活动对货币供给的影响还是一个谜。本文试图在前人对中国超额货币供给研究的基础上,采用非经济因素吸收分析法,测估未观测货币资金规模。与已有研究相比,本文侧重于未观测经济金融因素对货币吸收的分析,通过分解非经济因素,测算未观测经济金融因素吸收的货币规模。通过实证研究发现,2001年以来,未观测货币资金总量扩张较快,从6000多亿元扩大到近1万亿元。表明非正规金融活动进入新的活跃期,建议宏观调控和金融监管过程应关注未观测金融的影响。

Non- observed financial activities, such as private loans and enterprises＇ informal financing are reported frequently, but the size of non - observed money fund is still unknown clearly. This paper focuses on the non - observed economic and financial factors and estimates the size of non - observed money fund by using the approach of analyzing non - economic factors, which absorb money. After empirical testing, this result is discovered that the number of non - observed money fund grows fast from about 600 billion yuan to nearly 1000 billion yuan. This number indicates that informal financing activities are coming into flourish period. We furtherly suggest that the effect from non - observed financing should be considered during macroeconomic adjusting and financial supervising.