我国货币政策财政政策与经济增长关系的协整性分析

Cointegration Analysis on the Relationship between Monetary Policy,Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in China

运用向量误差修正模型、协整检验、G ranger因果检验和方差分解,对我国货币政策财政政策与经济增长关系的协整性作了实证分析。结果表明,我国货币政策与财政政策对宏观经济的短期调控效果较显著,且财政政策的调控能力更强;货币供应量具有明显的内生性,并在很大程度上被动适应财政政策;财政政策具有较强的独立性但存在中期化现象。

In this paper, vector error correction model, cointegrating test , Granger causality tests and variance decomposition are used to analyze the cointegration of the relationship between monetary policy, fiscal policy and economic growth in China empirically. The results are as follows ： First, the macro - adjustment of monetary policy and fiscal policy are effective in the short term and the capability of latter is more significant than the former. Secondly, the money supply has obvious endogenesis, and to a considerable extent, it has to be adapted to the fiscal policy. Thirdly, fiscal policy possesses obvious independence, but it remains constant in the long time.