西藏人口转变中的劳动适龄人口变动趋势

The Trends of Labor Age Population Changes in Tibetan Population Transformation

以1990和2000年西藏自治区人口普查资料为基础,对未来西藏人口的发展态势作了预测。预测分析显示,西藏正处于人口快速转变之中。未来25年内,随着总人口的变动,西藏劳动适龄人口的规模、年龄结构、比重也将发生显著变化,2010—2030年间将会出现劳动力适龄人口比例最大,社会总负担比最轻的“人口红利”期。西藏应抓住这一有利时机,大力发展教育、农牧业及副产品加工业、旅游业以及外贸和边贸,以实现真正的“人口红利”。

According to the census data of Tibet Autonomous Region in 1990 and 2000, the author forecasts the developing tendency of Tibetan population, which shows that the population in the region is rapidly transforming. In the future 25 years, with the change of the total population in Tibet, the scale, age structure, proportion of its labor age population will change remarkably, and during the period between 2010 and 2030 Tibet will be in the time of ＂Demographic bonus＂ with the biggest proportion of the labor age population and the lowest social burden. The Author puts forward the corresponding measures in order to realize the ＂Demographic bonus＂.