上市公司财务困境预警模型——一个基于沪市A股上市公司的实证研究

The Prediction Model of the List Companies' Financial Distress——A Practical Research based on the List Companies Incorporated in Shanghai

本文以我国沪市上市公司为研究对象,遴选了2004年度首次亏损的23家上市公司作为财务困境公司样本,同时选取了23家与之有大致相同规模的盈余公司作为正常公司样本。对相关公司的相关财务指标进行调整后,进行Logistic回归,从而建立两个财务困境预警模型,并对之进行实证检验。研究结果表明:采用调整财务数据后建立的财务困境预警模型对未来事件的预测率比采用原始数据建立的财务困境预警模型的预测率要好。

This paper is based on the list companies incorporated in Shanghai. The samples of our model include both twenty-three companies which stepped into financial distress the first time in the year 2004 and twenty-three companies which is normal and with the same size to the formers＇. We build two financial distress prediction models with the Logistic regression after the adjustment of related financial indexes, and take them into practice. The conclusion is that the financial distress model which is based on the adjusted financial indexes is better than the model which is based on the original financial indexes in the prediction of financial distress.