摘要
利用1995～2004年辽西地区4个代表站的大雾观测资料，分析了区域性大雾天气的气候统计特征，统计出易产生大雾天气的地面和高空形势场及出现频率，并从大雾产生的条件和形成机制入手，提出判别大雾出现的预报指标，并结合近10a的历史资料对预报指标进行了验证，平均历史概括率为81．0％。选取2004年7月1日—12月31日单站历史资料进行抽样预报效果检验，总空报率为22．2％，漏报率为5．1％，检验效果较好。
The climatic statistical characteristics of foggy weather in western Liaoning were analyzed using foggy weather data from four observation stations from 1995 to 2004. The surface and upper circulation favorable to forming fog and its occurrence frequency were also analyzed statistically. The forecast index of fog, proposed on the basis of the condition and mechanism of the fog occurrence, was validated by 10 years＇ data. The results showed that the general probability was 81%. The validation based on the data from 1st Jul. to 31st Dec. in the year of 2004 indicated that the forecast index of foggy weather could give a good prediction result with the vacancy rate of 22.2% and the miss rate of 5.1%.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2006年第3期7-10,共4页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
关键词
大雾
大气稳定度
气候统计特征
预报指标
Heavy fog
Atmospheric stability
Climatic statistical characteristics
Forecast index
