一种夏季强雷雨预报因子的选取方法

A selection method of forecast factors on summer heavy thunderstorm

为了提高对武汉天河机场夏季强雷雨天气预报准确率,利用极值剔除法选取了5个预报因子;这些因子分别与中低层大气和地面的温度、湿度等要素有关。将预报结论与天气实况进行对比后发现:极值剔除法所得的预报因子可以有效地减少夏季强雷雨的漏报率。

In order to improve the quality of forecasting summer heavy thunderstorm, 5 forecast factors were picked with the extrema elimination method. These factors were related respectively to the elements such as air temperature, humidity, wind direction and wind speed. The validation of the forecast results indicated that the ratio of missing report of heavy thunderstorm was decreased effectively.